# Has Metro Nashville been disciplined with spending? — Findings

*Nashville Metro Spending Study · written Oct 31 2026, reframed Nov 2 2026 (headline = FY2015→FY2025 against population × the government cost index) · data through FY2025 (year ended June 30, 2025)*
*Dashboard: https://claude.ai/artifact/YUHguQTc5sk2rtaWvGesBv*

## The short answer

**Over the last ten years spending grew faster than Nashville's population and the cost of what governments buy, by
about a quarter, and a little slower than Nashville's economy.** From FY2015 to FY2025 Metro's core spending
(operations plus debt service, before capital projects) rose from $2.11 billion to $3.94 billion, a 1.87× increase
(6.4% a year). The headline yardstick is population × the BEA state-and-local government cost index (what governments
pay for labor, construction and benefits); population × consumer prices (CPI-U) is reported beside it as the
taxpayer's view. Over the same ten years:

| Yardstick | 10-yr multiple | Spending vs yardstick |
|---|---|---|
| Population (Davidson County) | 1.09× | |
| Government cost index (BEA S&L deflator) | 1.35× | |
| **Population × government cost index** | **1.47×** | **spending +27% above** |
| Population × consumer prices (CPI-U) | 1.46× | spending +28% above |
| Jobs held by residents | 1.20× | |
| **Residents' personal income** | **2.01×** | **spending −7% below** |
| Assessed property value (GSD) | 2.43× | |
| U.S. state & local spending per capita | 1.54× | Metro per capita 1.72× — +12% hotter |

The two price indexes agree over this decade; they diverge over twenty years (FY2005→FY2025 the gap is +13% against
the government cost index and +26% against CPI) because what governments buy rose faster than consumer prices between
2005 and 2015. The twenty-year view is kept as context: FY2005–FY2015 spending grew slower than people and government
costs, so the whole of the ten-year gap, and more, opened after FY2015.

About $165M of FY2025 core spending is hotel and tourism tax collected from visitors and passed through to the Music
City Center and tourism promotion (see the General government note below); taking it out moves the ten-year gap from
+27% to +26%, so it does not change the verdict. Removing state and federal aid widens it to +35%.

So real spending per resident rose 28%, from $4,147 to $5,312 in FY2025 dollars, while Metro's claim on what residents
earn slipped from 5.8% to 5.4% of personal income. The government got more expensive per head and slightly cheaper
relative to the local economy.

**The discipline was uneven over time, and the last five years are the outlier.** Compound annual growth of core
spending against population × government costs, by five-year period (thresholds: period gap within 5% = held, 5–20% =
above, over 20% = well above):

| Period | Core spending | Revenues | Pop × gov costs | Gap (pts/yr) | Reading | Personal income |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2001–05 | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | +2.2 | Above | 2.7% |
| FY2005–10 | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | −1.2 | Below | 4.7% |
| FY2010–15 | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | −1.3 | Below | 4.5% |
| FY2015–20 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | +1.6 | Above | 7.3% |
| **FY2020–25** | **8.6%** | **9.0%** | **5.1%** | **+3.5** | **Above (18%)** | **7.2%** |

From FY2005 through FY2015 Metro spent less than population-plus-government-costs would explain (the recession years
were genuinely tight: reserves sat at 2–4% of spending and headcount fell). From FY2015 to FY2020 spending outran the
yardstick by 8% while revenues lagged it, producing operating deficits in FY2018 and FY2020 and reserves of only 2.3%
of core spending by FY2020. The FY2021 property-tax increase (combined rate $3.155 → $4.221, +34%) lifted revenues 23%
in one year and produced three years of large operating surpluses (+14%, +16%, +13% of core spending); spending then
caught up with growth of 11.9%, 9.8% and 10.7% in FY2022–FY2024, and by FY2025 the surplus was down to 0.6%. Over
FY2020–FY2025 spending grew 51% against 28% for population × government costs and 42% for personal income — the only
window in which spending also outran incomes.

## Since the pandemic (FY2019, the last full pre-pandemic year, → FY2025)

Core spending grew 1.56× against 1.32× for population × government costs, a gap of 18%, and about matched the 1.51×
growth in residents' income. By FY2025 Metro was spending roughly $603M a year more than the people-and-costs path from FY2019
would have produced, about $2.0B over the six years combined. The sequence matters: FY2020 was disciplined (spending
grew with people and government costs while revenues dipped and reserves fell to 2.3% of core spending, the thinnest point in
the series); the FY2021 rate increase ($3.155 → $4.221) lifted property-tax revenue 35% in one year and all revenues
23%, producing three years of operating surpluses; spending then grew 11.9%, 9.8% and 10.7% in FY2022–FY2024 against
government-cost inflation that ran about 9% in FY2022 and eased to 2% by FY2024, nearly every department sharing in it; and by FY2025 revenues covered core spending
with 0.6% to spare while capital outlay and new borrowing ran at record levels. Without the tourism-tax pass-through
the gap is 18% as well. Under the declared thresholds the period reads "above", the widest of any five-year window;
the FY2026 budget's second rate increase extends the pattern rather than ending it.

## Where the money went (current operating expenditures by function, FY2005 → FY2025)

Total current expenditures rose from $1.35 billion to $3.50 billion (2.60×). Population × CPI = 2.10×.

| Function | FY2005 | FY2025 | Multiple | Share FY05 → FY25 | Real per resident |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schools (MNPS) | $612M | $1,474M | 2.41× | 45% → 42% | +15% |
| Police, sheriff & jails | $206M | $468M | 2.27× | 15% → 13% | +8% |
| Fire | $95M | $214M | 2.25× | 7% → 6% | +8% |
| General government* | $36M | $298M | 8.33× | 3% → 9% | +298% |
| Transportation & public works | $64M | $173M | 2.73× | 5% → 5% | +30% |
| Miscellaneous | $44M | $168M | 3.82× | 3% → 5% | +82% |
| Social services** | $38M | $161M | 4.29× | 3% → 5% | +105% |
| Health & hospitals | $71M | $151M | 2.11× | 5% → 4% | +1% |
| Courts & justice | $54M | $112M | 2.07× | 4% → 3% | −1% |
| Employee benefits (paid centrally) | $55M | $79M | 1.44× | 4% → 2% | −31% |
| Parks, arts & culture | $33M | $73M | 2.22× | 2% → 2% | +6% |
| Fiscal administration | $14M | $61M | 4.32× | 1% → 2% | +106% |
| Libraries | $19M | $48M | 2.47× | 1% → 1% | +18% |
| Regulation & inspection | $7M | $20M | 2.65× | 1% → 1% | +27% |

\* General government is mostly not City Hall. The auditors' line bundles four things, read here fund by fund from each
year's governmental-funds statements (`data/gg_split/general_government_by_fund.csv`): the General Fund's own general
government departments ($24M in FY2010, $47M in FY2015 after fleet, facilities and IT units were folded in, $81M in
FY2025); **hotel and tourism taxes passed through to the Convention Center Authority for the Music City Center and to
tourism promotion** ($24M in FY2010, $64M in FY2015, $45M in the FY2021 trough, $165M in FY2025 — Metro's hotel
occupancy tax collections went from $38M to $158M over the same years); grant-funded programs in the Other Government
Services fund ($9M in FY2015, $69M in FY2024, $50M in FY2025); and flood and pandemic recovery ($28–44M in FY2010–FY2011,
under $3M since). Of the $181M increase from FY2021 to FY2025, $120M is the tourism pass-through, $30M is grants, and
$28M is the General Fund departments. The pass-through is real spending in the audited sense but it is visitor taxes
dedicated by law to the convention center and tourism, so it says nothing about discipline in running the government.
\*\* Social services jumped from $65M (FY2020) to $180M (FY2021) with federal pandemic relief passed through to
residents, fell back to $95M in FY2023, then rose again to $161M with the Office of Homeless Services.

The big three — schools, police/sheriff, fire — are 62% of operating spending and all grew a little faster than
population × CPI (real per-resident growth of 8–15%). School spending per pupil rose about 30% in real terms: spending
2.41× against enrollment 1.115× and prices 1.66×. Courts, health and hospitals, parks and the centrally paid benefits
line grew slower than people and prices.

## The department view (Operating Budget Books, FY2016 → FY2026 adopted budgets)

The budget books give the tax-supported general-fund budget (GSD + USD) of every department. From FY2016 to FY2026
the six-fund budget grew from $1.99 billion to $3.66 billion (1.84×) against 1.49× for population × CPI; from FY2021
to FY2026 it grew 1.51× against 1.32×. Where it went:

| Department (general-fund budget) | FY2016 | FY2021 | FY2026 | 10-yr × | 5-yr × |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metro Nashville Public Schools (General Purpose School Fund) | $810M | $926M | $1,383M | 1.71× | 1.49× |
| 001 Administrative (pensions, insurance, subsidies, transfers) | $318M | $348M | $499M | 1.57× | 1.44× |
| Debt service (GSD, schools, USD) | $222M | $354M | $437M | 1.97× | 1.23× |
| Police | $173M | $214M | $346M | 2.00× | 1.62× |
| Fire | $113M | $136M | $239M | 2.11× | 1.76× |
| Sheriff | $64M | $80M | $132M | 2.06× | 1.65× |
| Parks | $34M | $43M | $77M | 2.24× | 1.78× |
| Nashville Dept. of Transportation (ex-Public Works) | $50M | $65M | $76M | 1.53× | 1.17× |
| Health | $19M | $24M | $61M | 3.29× | 2.56× |
| Public Library | $27M | $32M | $52M | 1.93× | 1.62× |
| General Services | $23M | $26M | $41M | 1.76× | 1.57× |
| Emergency Communications | $14M | $16M | $28M | 2.09× | 1.75× |
| Codes | $8M | $12M | $21M | 2.50× | 1.78× |
| Finance | $8M | $11M | $19M | 2.46× | 1.73× |
| Planning | $4M | $6M | $19M | 4.90× | 3.40× |
| Public Defender / District Attorney | $7M / $6M | $10M / $8M | $18M / $15M | 2.54× / 2.62× | 1.88× / 1.83× |
| Mayor's Office | $3M | $5M | $9M | 2.91× | 1.83× |
| Office of Family Safety | $0.7M | $1.8M | $6.5M | 8.8× | 3.6× |
| Office of Homeless Services (created FY2024) | — | — | $11M | — | — |

Population × CPI = 1.49× (10-yr), 1.32× (5-yr). Almost every operating department outgrew it; the only large lines
that did not are NDOT's general-fund budget (its capital and grant money sits elsewhere), the debt-service funds over the
last five years, and Social Services (whose growth moved to the new homelessness office). The uniformity is the point:
the FY2021 tax increase lifted nearly every department by 60–80% in five years, not a few. Police, fire and the sheriff —
62% of the FY2026 operating departments' total excluding schools, debt and the pool — doubled in ten years against a
yardstick of 1.49×, mostly pay plans. Health's general-fund budget tripled as grant-funded work moved onto local
dollars after the pandemic.

**Inside the Administrative pool** ($499M in FY2026, the second-largest line): the WeGo/MTA transit subsidy rose from
$27M (FY2021) to $77M (FY2026); the Hospital Authority subsidy from $43M to $61M; the transfer that funds the 4%
capital reserve from $37M to $65M; correctional healthcare from $18M to $32M; the Barnes affordable-housing fund from
$10M to $16M; tax-increment payments to MDHA from $8M to $14M; a $51M waste-services transfer appears in FY2026 when
waste collection left the Urban Services District; $11M of pay-plan improvements and $10.6M of property losses are
FY2026 additions. Employee health insurance match fell from $56M to $49M. These are policy choices (transit, the
hospital, housing, reserves) rather than departmental cost growth, and they explain most of the pool's increase.

**The General Fund part of "General government" is growing fast too, just from a small base.** The audited General
Fund general-government line rose from $53M (FY2021) to $81M (FY2025), +53%, and the budget books show why: the
general government departments proper (Mayor, Council, Clerk, Law, Planning, HR, Finance, Assessor, Trustee, County
Clerk, General Services, Audit, Emergency Management; ITS bills through an internal-service fund) spent $96M in FY2021
and $138M in FY2024 (+44%, actuals), with Planning doubling and Law, HR and Finance up 46–65%. That is roughly a
sixth of the headline jump; the tourism pass-through is two thirds of it.

## Revenues, taxes and the tax base

* Revenues grew 2.73× (5.1% a year), essentially matching total spending (2.71×). The mix barely moved: property taxes
  41–42% throughout, local option sales tax 17–18%, state/federal/other governments 26% → 23%, other taxes and
  licenses 7% → 12% (hotel-motel and business taxes riding the tourism boom).
* The property-tax levy grew 2.69× while assessed value grew 3.68×. Tennessee's reappraisal law resets the certified
  rate after each four-year reappraisal so that existing property yields the same revenue, which is why the combined
  rate fell from $4.58 (FY2005) to $3.254 (FY2025) even as bills rose: the base appreciated faster than the levy. The
  two deliberate increases were FY2013 ($4.13 → $4.66, Mayor Dean) and FY2021 ($3.155 → $4.221, Mayor Cooper).
* The FY2026 adopted budget (outside this data, which ends at FY2025 actuals) budgets GSD General Fund property taxes
  of $1,101 million against $725 million in FY2025 — a 52% jump from the 2025 reappraisal combined with a rate set above
  the certified rate. If FY2026 actuals land near budget, the FY2020–25 pattern (tax increase first, spending catching
  up) repeats.

## Debt, capital and the workforce

* **Debt is the clearest warning sign.** Total primary-government debt (including Water Services revenue bonds) rose
  from $1.88 billion to $5.94 billion; per resident in FY2025 dollars that is $5,309 → $8,018 (+51%). Debt service took
  9.8% of core spending in FY2005 and 11.1% in FY2025. Capital outlay averaged about $250–350 million a year before
  FY2020 and $500–625 million a year in FY2023–FY2025, with $786 million of new debt issued in FY2025 alone. Debt grew
  faster than spending, population, prices and income; only assessed property value kept pace with it.
* **Headcount was the disciplined line.** Governmental FTEs rose from 16,372 to 19,772 (+21%) against population +26%,
  so Metro employs slightly fewer people per 1,000 residents than it did in FY2005 (27.9 → 26.7) and exactly as many as
  in FY2001 (26.7). Police and sheriff +33% (4.6 → 4.8 per 1,000), Fire +33%, Schools +19% (staff per pupil up),
  General government +48%, Social services −39%, Courts +11%, Public works +10%.
* **Reserves** fell to 2.3% of core spending in FY2020, were rebuilt to 12% by FY2022 after the tax increase, and have
  since been drawn down to 6.8% (FY2025). Metro's own measure — unassigned General Fund balance against General Fund
  outlays — was 15.7% at June 30, 2025 against a 17% policy target adopted in FY2023, and the FY2026 budget appropriates
  money to restore it.

## Verdict

| Test | Result | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Spending vs population × government costs (headline) | +27% above over 10 yrs; +18% over 5; +13% over 20 | **Failed**; the gap opened after FY2015 and widened after the FY2021 tax increase |
| Spending vs population × consumer prices | +28% over 10 yrs; +18% over 5; +26% over 20 | Same reading over ten years |
| Spending vs personal income | −17% over 20 yrs; −7% over 10; **+7% over 5** | **Passed** until FY2020; failed since |
| Per-capita spending vs U.S. state & local trend | 2.08× vs 2.03× over 20 yrs; 1.72× vs 1.54× over 10 | In line long-run; hotter than the nation recently |
| Operating balance | surpluses most years; deficits FY2003–06, FY2010, FY2018, FY2020 | Structural strain before each tax increase |
| Debt per resident (real) | +25% over 10 yrs (+51% over 20) | **Failed**; new peak in FY2025 |
| Employees per 1,000 residents | 25.2 → 26.7 over 10 yrs (27.9 in FY2005) | Fell for a decade, rising since FY2020 |

**Prudent or careless?** Through FY2015 the record is prudent to a fault — spending grew slower than population and
government costs, headcount shrank per capita, but reserves were thin and debt was already climbing. Since FY2015, and
especially since FY2020, spending has grown well beyond what population and the cost of government explain, financed first by a large tax increase
and then by spending down the surplus it created. The money went disproportionately to general government, social
services and transportation rather than to the big three services; schools, police and fire grew only modestly
faster than people and government costs. Judged against the community's growing income, Metro is still a slightly
smaller share of the local economy than it was ten years ago. Judged against the two things a disciplined government controls directly
— the spending rate and the debt load — the last five years look loose, and FY2026's second rate increase in five
years extends the pattern rather than ending it.

## Open questions this data cannot settle (department-level work)

1. What the Other Government Services fund spent $69M on in FY2024 (up from $9M a decade earlier): the ACFR describes
   it only as grants, contributions, seized-property proceeds and "special revenues supporting other governmental
   operations"; the grant agreements or the Finance Department could name the programs.
2. How much of FY2021–FY2025 growth is federal pandemic money passing through (intergovernmental revenue rose 38%
   in the window) versus local-dollar growth?
3. Whether the FY2026 property-tax jump lands as budgeted, and where the FY2026–FY2027 budgets put the money.

## Method in one paragraph

Spending and revenue come from the statistical section of Metro's audited Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports
(each year from the most recent report covering it; FY2001–FY2025), using the governmental-fund (modified accrual)
statements because the government-wide accrual series carries unrestated breaks from new pension (FY2015) and
retiree-health (FY2018, FY2022) accounting rules. Core spending = current expenditures (all functions including MNPS
and centrally paid benefits) + debt service; capital outlay is tracked separately. Business-type activities (Water,
District Energy, Fairgrounds, Farmers' Market, Municipal Auditorium) and component units (Hospital Authority, Sports
Authority, Convention Center Authority, WeGo, MDHA) are excluded, though the General Hospital subsidy is inside Health
& hospitals. Benchmarks: Census population estimates for Davidson County (the government's jurisdiction; vintages
bridged at 2020), CPI-U, the BEA state-and-local government price deflator, BEA personal income, BLS employed
residents, all aligned to the fiscal-year midpoint. FY2025 personal income uses calendar 2024. Full documentation:
`data/README_benchmarks.md`, `data/acfr/README_acfr_extraction.md`, and the dashboard's Method tab.