# Outcomes next to the two biggest spending lines — what moved, 2005–2025

Metro's two largest spending areas are schools (about 42% of operating spending) and public safety (police, sheriff and fire, about 20%).
The series below (`outcomes_annual.csv`) are the outcome measures that exist at district or county level for most of the window. They are
descriptive: movements are *associated with* the period's spending, demographics, policy and measurement changes, not attributed to any of them.

## Schools (MNPS)
Enrollment rose from 72,458 (FY2005) to a peak of 87,783 (FY2017) and has since drifted down to 80,798 (FY2025), so per-pupil spending has risen
faster than total spending in the last eight years. The **four-year graduation rate** moved from 81.6% (class of 2015) through a flat 80–82% band
to a record 85.7% (2024), 83.6% (2025) and 86.4% (2026, state definition; the federal ACGR for 2026 is 82.8%). **Grades 3–8 proficiency** has two
incompatible halves. Under TCAP (2010–2015) ELA rose from 34.7% to 39.3% and math from 25.9% to 45.4%. TNReady (2017+) reset the bar: ELA 25.4% and
math 26.7% in 2017, a pandemic trough of 18.4% / 12.6% in 2021, then a steady climb to 31.8% / 32.4% in 2026 — the highest TNReady readings on
record and above the 2019 level. The **ACT composite** went the other way: 18.2 (2013) to 19.0 (2017), then down to 17.4–17.6 since 2022, with the
share scoring 21+ falling from 32% to 25%. **Chronic absenteeism** was 16–18% before 2020, jumped to 29–30% in 2021–22, and has eased to 23.3% (2025),
still well above the pre-pandemic level. The biggest breaks: 2016 (3–8 tests cancelled), 2017 (new test — no comparison across it), 2020 (no tests),
2016 ACT basis change, and the 2023 state/federal graduation-rate split.

## Police and sheriff
Reported **violent crime** (MNPD Part I) was 8,954 offenses in 2005 and 8,474 in 2024; against a county that grew 25%, the rate fell from 1,518 to
1,150 per 100,000 (−24%). The path was not smooth: a drop to 1,054 in 2013, a rise to 1,272 in 2022 (aggravated assault 6,963, the highest count
in the series), then two years of decline. **Property crime** fell further: 36,958 to 31,903 offenses, 6,266 to 4,331 per 100,000 (−31%), with a 2014
low of 3,529; burglary fell 54% (6,400 → 2,921) while motor-vehicle theft went from 3,339 (2005) to 1,123 (2014) to 5,679 (2023) and 5,201 (2024).
**Homicides**: 97 (2005), a 40-year low of 40 (2013), 111 (2017), 114 (2020) and 103 in both 2023 and 2024 — 14.0 per 100,000 against 16.4 in 2005.
FBI **clearance rates** (cleared ÷ reported, same year) were 45% violent / 11.5% property in 2005 and 42% / 11% in 2024, after a 2013 high
(50% / 19%) and a 2020 low (28% / 8%); homicide clearance rose from 46% to 65%. Definition breaks: rape redefined in 2012 (MNPD a year ahead of the
FBI), which lifts violent and total counts from 2012; FBI and MNPD counts differ by 1–3% in most years. **Traffic**: fatal crashes in Davidson County
were 66 (2007), 77 (2018), then 102–129 a year in 2019–2023 and 103–106 in 2024–25; persons killed went from 82 (2003) and 64 (2014) to 138 (2023) and
114 (2024), the latter on a different (state) counting basis. Workload indicators from the ACFR: police CAD calls rose from 1.09 M (FY2005) to about
1.5 M (FY2016–18) and fell to 0.98 M (FY2025) after FY2021–22 routing changes; Sheriff inmate-days peaked at 1.33 M (FY2010), fell to 0.57 M (FY2021)
and have climbed back to 0.85 M (FY2025).

## Fire
The only public multi-year NFD series are the ACFR response counts. Life-threatening responses rose from 38,766 (FY2005) to 45,773 (FY2017), a 18%
increase on a 19% larger population, and then stepped to 59,993 (FY2018), 64,508 (FY2021) and 100,031 (FY2022) — each step coincides with an ACFR-noted
reclassification (end of 2018, 2019 methodology, 2021), so FY2018+ is not comparable with earlier years. Non-life-threatening responses show the mirror
image (35,042 → 60,478 in FY2019; 62,581 → 48,088 in FY2022). Fire stations went from 39 to 40. No structure-fire, fire-death or response-time history is
published.

## Start / end values

| metric (basis) | start | end | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| MNPS enrollment, 2nd month (FY) | 72,458 (2005) | 80,798 (2025) | peak 87,783 (FY2017) |
| 4-yr graduation rate, state def. (SY) | 81.6% (2015) | 86.4% (2026) | 85.7% 2024, 83.6% 2025; federal 2026 = 82.8% |
| ELA grades 3–8 % proficient — TCAP (SY) | 34.7% (2010) | 39.3% (2015) | series ends 2015 |
| ELA grades 3–8 % on-track/met — TNReady (SY) | 25.4% (2017) | 31.8% (2026) | 2021 trough 18.4% |
| Math grades 3–8 — TCAP (SY) | 25.9% (2010) | 45.4% (2015) | |
| Math grades 3–8 — TNReady (SY) | 26.7% (2017) | 32.4% (2026) | 2021 trough 12.6% |
| ACT composite (class of) | 18.2 (2013) | 17.5 (2025) | peak 19.0 (2017); basis change 2016 |
| ACT share scoring 21+ | 31.3% (2016) | 24.6% (2025) | |
| Chronic absenteeism, all grades (SY) | 16.9% (2017) | 23.3% (2025) | 29.7% in 2022 |
| TDOE per-pupil expenditure (FY) | $12,757 (2019) | $18,466 (2025) | FY2024 $22,004 unexplained |
| Violent crime rate, per 100k, study pop. (CY) | 1,518 (2005) | 1,150 (2024) | low 1,054 (2013), high 1,272 (2022) |
| Property crime rate, per 100k (CY) | 6,266 (2005) | 4,331 (2024) | low 3,529 (2014) |
| Homicides (CY) | 97 (2005) | 103 (2024) | 40 (2013), 114 (2020) |
| Aggravated assaults (CY) | 6,080 (2005) | 6,559 (2024) | 6,963 (2022) |
| Burglaries / motor-vehicle thefts (CY) | 6,400 / 3,339 (2005) | 2,921 / 5,201 (2024) | MVT low 1,123 (2014) |
| FBI violent / property clearance rate (CY) | 45.2% / 11.5% (2005) | 41.8% / 11.2% (2024) | 2020 low 28.3% / 7.9% |
| FBI homicide clearance rate (CY) | 46.3% (2005) | 65.0% (2024) | |
| Traffic fatal crashes, Davidson (CY) | 66 (2007) | 103 (2025, prelim.) | peak 129 (2022) |
| Traffic deaths (CY) | 82 (2003, MNPD) | 114 (2024, TDOS) | two counting bases; 2019–22 missing |
| Police CAD calls (FY) | 1,090,591 (2005) | 980,838 (2025) | routing changes FY2021–22 |
| 911 calls received (FY) | 332,182 (2005) | 186,560 (2025) | ECC re-categorized 2023 |
| Sheriff inmate-days, total (FY) | 1,105,675 (2005) | 854,775 (2025) | peak 1.33 M (FY2010), low 0.57 M (FY2021) |
| Fire life-threatening responses (FY) | 38,766 (2005) | 114,540 (2025) | reclassified 2018/2019/2021; 45,773 in FY2017 |
| Fire non-life-threatening responses (FY) | 17,240 (2005) | 47,824 (2025) | same breaks |
| Fire stations (FY) | 39 (2005) | 40 (2024) | |