# Is Nashville's spending growth unusual? — Peer comparison findings

*Nashville Metro Spending Study · written Nov 2 2026 · data: `peer_annual.csv`, methods and caveats: `README_peers.md`*

**Short answer: yes, on growth; and it was already the highest spender per head.** Over FY2015–FY2025 Metro
Nashville's core spending (operations plus debt service, before capital projects, schools included) grew 1.87×,
28 % faster than its population × consumer prices. The three peers that can be assembled on the same basis grew
1.64–1.65×, which is 2 % (Charlotte), 6 % (Jacksonville) and 19 % (Louisville) above their own population × prices.
Every peer outgrew people-plus-inflation in this decade, so a positive gap is normal; Nashville's gap is the largest
by a wide margin, and most of it opened after FY2020. Per resident, in FY2025 dollars, Nashville spent $4,147 in
FY2015 (14 % above the three-peer average) and $5,312 in FY2025 (35 % above).

## With schools (the like-for-like set: Nashville, Louisville + JCPS, Jacksonville + DCPS, Charlotte + Mecklenburg + CMS)

Core spending per resident, FY2015 → FY2025, and the ten-year growth test:

| City | Per head FY2015 (nominal) | Per head FY2015 (FY2025 $) | Per head FY2025 | Real change per head | Core spending multiple | Population × CPI | Spending vs yardstick | Revenue multiple |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Nashville** | $3,089 | $4,147 | **$5,312** | **+28 %** | **1.87×** | 1.46× | **+28 %** | 1.81× |
| Louisville | $2,477 | $3,325 | $3,954 | +19 % | 1.64× | 1.38× | +19 % | 1.60× |
| Jacksonville | $2,727 | $3,687 | $3,900 | +6 % | 1.65× | 1.56× | +6 % | 1.77× |
| Charlotte | $2,881 | $3,868 | $3,964 | +2 % | 1.65× | 1.61× | +2 % | 1.63× |

Compound annual growth of core spending: Nashville 6.4 % a year against a yardstick of 3.8 %; the peers 5.1 % a year
against yardsticks of 3.3–4.9 %. Nashville's revenues also grew fastest (1.81×, after the FY2021 property-tax
increase), but Jacksonville's grew almost as fast (1.77×) while its spending did not.

When the gap opened:

| City | FY2015→FY2020 core | yardstick | gap | FY2020→FY2025 core | yardstick | gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Nashville** | 1.23× | 1.14× | +9 % | **1.51×** | 1.28× | **+18 %** |
| Louisville | 1.20× | 1.10× | +9 % | 1.37× | 1.25× | +9 % |
| Jacksonville | 1.20× | 1.18× | +2 % | 1.38× | 1.32× | +4 % |
| Charlotte | 1.17× | 1.18× | −1 % | 1.41× | 1.36× | +3 % |

Through FY2020 Nashville and Louisville ran the same +9 % ahead of people-and-prices; since FY2020 Nashville has
doubled that gap while the peers held at +3 % to +9 %. This matches the Nashville-only finding that FY2020–FY2025 is
the loose window.

Core spending per resident every year, in FY2025 dollars:

| FY | Nashville | Charlotte | Louisville | Jacksonville |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $4,147 | $3,868 | $3,325 | $3,660 |
| 2016 | $4,248 | $3,900 | $3,568 | $3,650 |
| 2017 | $4,383 | $3,861 | $3,468 | $3,662 |
| 2018 | $4,539 | $3,853 | $3,601 | $3,544 |
| 2019 | $4,491 | $3,817 | $3,632 | $3,536 |
| 2020 | $4,505 | $3,836 | $3,627 | $3,717 |
| 2021 | $4,727 | $3,970 | $3,850 | $3,686 |
| 2022 | $4,948 | $4,045 | $3,950 | $3,632 |
| 2023 | $5,046 | $4,044 | $3,901 | $3,624 |
| 2024 | $5,316 | $4,176 | $3,904 | $3,736 |
| 2025 | $5,312 | $3,964 | $3,954 | $3,872 |

Charlotte and Jacksonville are flat in real terms per head over the decade; Louisville rose a fifth; Nashville rose
more than a quarter and from the highest base. (Jacksonville's FY2015 figure in this table, $3,660, deflates with
its own September-year CPI; the summary table above uses the common FY2025 price level, hence $3,687.)

## Without schools (general governments only; adds Indianapolis + Marion County)

Nashville here = Metro less MNPS current expenditures (school debt service stays in, see caveat 1). Peers = their
city/county governments without the school districts.

| City | Years | Per head start (latest $) | Per head latest | Real change per head | Core multiple | Population × CPI | Spending vs yardstick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **Nashville** | FY2015→FY2025 | $2,433 | **$3,323** | **+37 %** | **1.99×** | 1.46× | **+37 %** |
| Indianapolis | CY2016→CY2024 | $1,482 | $1,835 | +24 % | 1.69× | 1.36× | +24 % |
| Louisville | FY2015→FY2025 | $1,244 | $1,521 | +22 % | 1.69× | 1.38× | +22 % |
| Jacksonville | FY2015→FY2025 | $1,989 | $2,227 | +12 % | 1.75× | 1.56× | +12 % |
| Charlotte | FY2015→FY2025 | $2,859 | $2,999 | +5 % | 1.69× | 1.61× | +5 % |

Sub-periods, spending vs yardstick: FY2015→FY2020 Nashville +12 %, Indianapolis +15 % (from 2016), Jacksonville
+11 %, Louisville +7 %, Charlotte +1 %; FY2020→latest Nashville **+22 %**, Louisville +14 %, Indianapolis +8 %,
Charlotte +3 %, Jacksonville 0 %. Nashville's non-school government grew faster than every peer's in both windows
except Indianapolis's 2016–2020 stretch, and its recent gap is again the largest.

Levels without schools are less comparable than growth (the peers leave courts, public health, libraries or suburban
fire districts to the state, to separate corporations or to other taxing units — see README caveat 3), but even
Charlotte + Mecklenburg, the fullest-service peer, spends $300 a head less than Metro Nashville without its schools.

## Robustness

| Lens | Nashville | Louisville | Jacksonville | Charlotte | Indianapolis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current expenditures only (debt service removed), with schools, FY2015→FY2025 vs yardstick | +27 % | +20 % | +9 % | +7 % | — |
| Same, without schools | +37 % | +25 % | +20 % | +12 % | +6 % |
| Core spending from a FY2016 base, with schools | +25 % | +11 % | +6 % | +2 % | — |
| Same, without schools | +34 % | +4 % | +11 % | +4 % | +24 % |

Removing debt service (which carries one-off bond-note redemptions in Charlotte's FY2022 and FY2024 and Louisville's
refundings) or moving the base to FY2016 (which removes Louisville's one-off FY2016 economic-development payment)
changes the peers' rankings but not Nashville's position: +25 % to +37 % against a peer range of +2 % to +25 %.

## Verdict

* **Growth:** Nashville is the outlier. Its core spending outran population × CPI by 28 % (schools in) or 37 %
  (schools out) over ten years; the next-fastest peer, Louisville, is at +19 % / +22 % and the other two are near the
  yardstick. The gap is almost entirely a FY2020–FY2025 phenomenon: +18 % in five years against +3 % to +9 % for the
  peers.
* **Level:** Nashville spent the most per resident in FY2015 and the most in FY2025, and the distance grew from 14 % to
  35 % above the peer average (schools in). Part of the level gap is scope (Metro pays for courts, health, hospital
  subsidy and school debt that peers' states or separate bodies carry), so the level comparison is indicative; the
  growth comparison is on like terms.
* **Context:** all four peers also grew faster than people-plus-prices, which is the national pattern for state and
  local government in 2015–2025. What makes Nashville unusual is the size of the excess and its timing, not the sign.

## Caveats (full list in README_peers.md)

1. Nashville-less-schools still carries MNPS's debt service and capital; peers' districts carry their own. The
   ex-schools gap is overstated by roughly 3–5 points of level, far less in growth.
2. Jacksonville's city year ends September 30 and Indianapolis reports calendar years; levels are offset a few months.
3. Courts, public health, libraries and suburban fire or town services sit outside some peers' figures (state-funded or
   separate bodies); suburban municipalities inside each county are in the population but not the spending.
4. Three values rest on OCR or a page-image read (JCPS FY2025; DCPS FY2024 and FY2025 from the audited basic statement
   rather than a ten-year table) and Charlotte's two newest tables were read in the browser; all tie to printed totals.
5. Indianapolis has no schools and starts in 2016; Memphis and Austin were dropped as unlike.
6. Federal pandemic money inflates every government's FY2021–FY2023 figures; it does not explain a gap that persists
   into FY2024–FY2025.