Fiscal discipline since the pandemic

From the last pre-pandemic year to FY2025: how far spending moved beyond people and government costs, where the money came from, and what happened to reserves and debt.

Audited figures through FY2025 · adopted budgets through FY2026, recommended FY2027 · peer cities through FY2025 · built 2026-11-02

Fiscal discipline since the pandemic, FY2019 → FY2025

Since the last pre-pandemic year, spending has grown nearly a fifth beyond people and government costs, and has now caught up with the tax increase that funded it.

From FY2019 to FY2025 core spending grew — against — for population × government costs, a gap of —, and roughly matched the — growth in residents' income. By FY2025 Metro was spending — a year more than the people-and-government-costs path from FY2019 would have produced, about — over the six years combined. The money came first from the FY2021 property-tax increase, which lifted property-tax revenue —, and from federal and state aid that peaked in FY2024. Reserves were rebuilt from the thinnest point in twenty years and have since been drawn down as spending caught up with revenue.

Same thresholds as the ten-year verdict. Without the tourism-tax pass-through the gap is —: the reading does not change.

Spending beyond people and government costs since FY2019

—

— vs —

Per resident after inflation: — → —

Property-tax revenue, FY2019 → FY2025

—

The FY2021 rate increase ($3.155 → $4.221 per $100) did most of it in one year

All revenues — · state and federal aid —

General Fund reserves, unassigned

—

From — in FY2020 to a peak of — in FY2022, then drawn down

Metro's own policy target is 17% of General Fund spending

Debt per resident, FY2025 dollars

—

Was — in FY2019 · — after inflation

Employees per 1,000 residents — → —

Spending left the people-and-government-costs path in FY2021 and never came back

Core spending in nominal dollars; the grey line is where it would be had it grown only with population × government costs from FY2019. The shaded band is the pandemic window.

Year by year: revenue jumped first, spending followed, the surplus is gone

Nominal dollars, millions. "Excess" is spending above the FY2019 people-and-government-costs path. Reserves are the General Fund's unassigned balance at year end.

FY	Core spending	Excess vs path	Revenues	Property tax	State & federal	Reserves	New debt issued	Capital outlay

Where the extra revenue came from

Change in yearly revenue by source, FY2019 → FY2025, nominal dollars. Property tax carried the increase; the sales-tax and tourism rebound and higher state and federal aid did the rest.

What to make of it

The FY2020 pandemic year itself was disciplined: revenues dipped, spending grew with people and government costs, reserves fell to — of core spending, the lowest in this series.
The FY2021 tax increase was sized for a downturn that proved short; revenues rose — in a year while spending rose —, producing three years of operating surpluses.
Spending then grew —, — and — in FY2022–FY2024, against government-cost inflation that ran about 9% in FY2022 and eased to 2% by FY2024, and nearly every department shared in it (see Departments).
By FY2025 revenues covered core spending with — to spare, and the FY2026 budget raised the property-tax rate again after reappraisal. Capital spending and new borrowing ran at record levels in FY2023–FY2025.