What the two biggest spending lines bought
Schools and public safety are three fifths of operating spending. Spending per pupil and per resident since FY2015, beside graduation, test, crime, clearance and traffic results over the same years.
Outcomes next to the two biggest spending lines, FY2015 → FY2025
Schools cost a third more per pupil and show higher graduation and test results but worse attendance and ACT scores; public safety costs a fifth more per resident while crime per resident sits above its 2015 low.
Schools are about two fifths of operating spending and public safety a fifth. Real spending per pupil went from — to — in FY2025 dollars (—) while enrollment went the other way (—). Over the same years the four-year graduation rate rose from — to —, grades 3–8 reading and math proficiency climbed from the first year of the current state test (— → — reading, — → — math), the average ACT score slipped from — to —, and chronic absenteeism went from — to — of students. Police, sheriff and fire spending per resident went from — to — (—); violent crime per 100,000 residents is — and property crime — against 2015, though both remain well below 2005, homicides went from — to — a year, the share of violent crimes cleared barely moved, and fatal crashes rose from — to — a year.
These are associations, not effects: each outcome also moved with the economy, demographics, the pandemic and changes in how things are measured. Spending is by Metro fiscal year (July–June); test and graduation results by the school year ending that spring; crime and traffic by calendar year, so "2024" sits beside FY2025. Breaks in each series are marked on the charts and listed under the tables.
Schools: spending per pupil was flat for a decade, then rose a third in ten years
MNPS current operating spending per enrolled student in FY2025 dollars (CPI-U). The shaded band is the ten-year window.
Graduation and grades 3–8 proficiency are up; attendance is worse than before the pandemic
Share of students, by school year. The state replaced its grades 3–8 test in 2017, so the earlier series (dashed) is not comparable with the later one; no tests in 2016 and 2020.
The average ACT score peaked in 2017 and has fallen since
Average composite score of the graduating class (scale 1–36), MNPS. Scores before 2016 come from ACT's own class reports and after from the state's cohort files, a small change in basis.
Schools, start to end
Spending by fiscal year; results by the school year ending that spring. Change is in percentage points for rates and in percent for dollars and counts.
| Measure | Years | Start | End | Change | Note |
|---|
Public safety: spending per resident fell through FY2015, then rose a fifth
Police, sheriff and jails plus fire, current operating spending per Davidson County resident in FY2025 dollars. The shaded band is the ten-year window.
Crime per resident is far below 2005 but has drifted up since the mid-2010s
Reported offenses per 100,000 county residents, calendar years (Metro Nashville Police Department counts). Rape was redefined in 2012, which lifts the violent line from that year.
Homicides: a forty-year low in 2013, then back above 100 a year
Reported homicides, calendar years. The county grew 25% over these years, so the 2024 rate per resident is below 2005's.
The share of crimes cleared has not improved; homicide clearance has
Offenses cleared by arrest or exception ÷ offenses reported in the same year, from FBI data for the Nashville police department.
Public safety, start to end
Spending by fiscal year; crime and traffic by calendar year (the latest full year is 2024, beside FY2025); workload indicators by fiscal year. Change is in percentage points for rates and in percent for dollars and counts.
| Measure | Years | Start | End | Change | Note |
|---|
What these outcome series can and cannot say
- The 2017 switch to a harder state test reset grades 3–8 proficiency from about 40% to about 25%; only the 2017-onward series is compared here, and its 2021 trough partly reflects who sat the test after a remote year.
- Graduation rates follow the state definition throughout; the federal definition Tennessee added in 2023 runs several points lower (82.8% for the class of 2026).
- Crime counts come from the police department's own history, cross-checked against FBI figures (within 1–3% in most years); clearance rates are the FBI's, computed on same-year reports. Traffic deaths for 2019–2022 are not available on a consistent basis, so fatal crashes are used.
- Fire outcomes are not published: the only multi-year series is the count of responses, which was reclassified in FY2018, FY2019 and FY2021 and so is left out of the comparison.
- Public-safety spending here is the audited current spending of the police, sheriff, jails and fire functions; it does not include the courts, the juvenile system or capital projects such as stations and vehicles.
- Sources: Tennessee Department of Education district files; Metro Nashville Police Department Part I crime history 1963–2024; FBI Crime Data Explorer; Tennessee Department of Safety crash data; Metro ACFR operating indicators. Full definitions and every break are in the outcomes data README on the Data page.