Did Metro Nashville’s spending grow faster than the number of people served and the general price level?

That is the question this scorecard answers, with Metro's own audited figures. Over the last ten years the answer is yes, by about a quarter, while spending grew a little slower than Nashville's economy. From FY2015 to FY2025 core spending rose —, against — for population and the cost of what governments buy together, and — for residents' personal income. Most of the gap opened after 2020.

Audited figures through FY2025 · adopted budgets through FY2026, recommended FY2027 · peer cities through FY2025 · built 2026-11-02

The verdict, FY2015 → FY2025

Spending outran people and government costs by about a quarter, and fell a little short of the economy's growth.

Core spending, the cost of running the government day to day plus its debt payments, grew — in ten years. Had it grown only with population and the prices governments pay for labor, construction and benefits it would have grown — (with consumer prices instead, —; the two agree over this decade). Residents' total income grew —. So the government costs more per resident than it did, and takes a slightly smaller share of what residents earn. Through FY2020 spending ran modestly ahead of people and costs; the excess is above all a story of the five years since the pandemic. Over twenty years the gap is only —, because from FY2005 to FY2015 spending grew slower than people and government costs.

How this page judges: growth within 5% of population × government costs over a five-year period is "held"; 5% to 20% above is "above"; more than 20% above is "well above". Against income, within 5% is "kept pace". Single years are not judged. Government costs = the BEA price index for what state and local governments buy; consumer prices (CPI) are shown beside it as the taxpayer's view.

Spending beyond people and government costs, 10 years

—

— spending vs — people × government costs

20 years: — · against consumer prices instead, 10 years: —

Cost per resident, in FY2025 dollars

—

Was — in FY2015 · — after consumer inflation

Core spending ÷ Davidson County population, at FY2025 prices

The last five years, FY2020 → FY2025

—

beyond people × government costs, the widest gap of any five-year period

Spending — vs — · incomes —

What changed in ten years

Schools, police and fire are — of operating spending and grew —, a little faster than people and government costs (—).
The fastest-growing line, "General government", is mostly hotel and tourism taxes passed through to the Music City Center and tourism promotion: — of its — in FY2025. Taking that pass-through out moves the ten-year gap from — to —; the verdict survives.
Revenues grew —, in step with spending. The FY2021 property-tax increase lifted collections — in a single year, and spending caught up with it over the next four.
Debt per resident rose — after inflation, and employees per 1,000 residents went from — to —: both the borrowing and the workforce grew faster than the population.

Spending ran modestly ahead of people and government costs until 2020, then pulled away

Index, base year = 100. Metro's core spending in color; the grey lines show where it would be had it grown with each yardstick. Events marked on the series.

Base year

Core spending = governmental-fund expenditures for current operations plus debt service, before capital projects. Revenues = taxes, intergovernmental aid, charges and fees, before borrowing. Yardsticks: Davidson County population, the state-and-local government price index, CPI-U, personal income of residents.

Every yardstick, including the ones that cut against the verdict

Growth multiples ending FY2025. "Gap" is how far core spending's multiple exceeded (+) or trailed (−) the yardstick's over the same window.

Yardstick	10-yr	Gap	5-yr	Gap	20-yr	Gap

Judged five years at a time: below people and government costs FY2005–FY2015, above since, widest since 2020

Compound annual growth in each period. The bar shows the gap between core spending's growth rate and that of population × government costs, in percentage points a year.

Period	Core spending	People × gov costs	Gap, pts a year	Reading	Incomes	Revenues

Per resident, after inflation, the government cost about 28% more in FY2025 than in FY2015

Core spending per Davidson County resident in FY2025 dollars, deflated with CPI-U. The shaded band is the ten-year window.

Year by year, the excess over people and government costs clusters in FY2021–FY2024

Each bar is the year's growth in core spending minus the year's growth in population × government costs. Read the five-year table for judgments; single years carry timing noise.